Stimulus and evolution

Life, ive found out, is a series of periods of exposure to stimulus. And phases of assimilation / evolution / reaction to the stimulus - interspersed in between those periods of exposure.

I am constantly evolving - the evolution mostly being a function of the stimulus i am exposed to and parameters fine tuned based on a sort of a positive feedback loop:

Stimulus -> Reaction / Evolution -> More Stimulus -> Assessment of  suitability of evolution -> More Evolution -> Stimulus .. and so on it goes.

Um, general rant mostly.

Its now been like 6 months since ive been near permanently living here at home - just sporadic trips (mostly need based) most people i meet seem to think that ive lost a fair amount of weight and generally looking significantly healthier than i've ever looked.

I am getting a lot of rest i think. I can put in 16/18 hour workdays and still get 6 hours of sleep because transit times and domestic chores are nearly non existent.

Drove to Coimbatore and back on saturday - there is a HUGE improvement in highway quality across Tamilnadu - now it just takes me like 3.5 hours to get there from Madurai - thats like an average of somewhere near the 80 kmph mark. This is in fact happening across India simultaneously as i see it - Ive been to Bangalore recently - of course around Madras - in Bombay - Gujarat - so theres something all these NRI types have missed. I actually can drive to Madras in 6 hours from Madurai - although i havent tried it yet - but this really changes a lot of business dynamics - maybe that - and a possible introduction of a shatabdi type train between Madras and Madurai -

Onto other things:

We went out for food yesterday - Zeenat, MB and me - to the only posh joint in the neighbourhood - and we  were like chatting - more like she was doing most of the talking. Key noteworthy points:

a) She claims to be in a 'stage of life' where she feels 'Lonely' - in Tamil she clarifies - வெறுமை (i checked MB's reaction to see if this was some prearranged gag - but he seemed genuinely surprised)

b) Shes very happy that ive 'settled down' here and IS is 'settling down' with his course - so shes now peacefully 'concentrating' on 'completing long pending work on house renovation*'

c) It now gets interesting. In one moment of weakness - she confirmed that her Top reason for hounding me about getting married is that she wants Grandchildren to obsess about. I point out that she has atleast 3 of them (All my cousins are moms and dads now - they all live in the neighborhood) - but she tells me that it is 'not the same' as your 'own' grandchild.

She then concludes - with the above powerful arguments as support - that i am somehow not 'falling in line' and she does not understand what makes me behave like such a killjoy when 'kids everywhere' 'listen to parents'

So, now in addition to ones regular family responsibilities that people talk about all the time - it looks like theres this new job of keeping one's mother entertained by frequently churning out new cute grandchildren at an optimum frequency, comfortably spaced out to keep her happy for the entire duration of the 'lonely period !?'

And I always thought that only teenagers or people in their twenties go through these 'Angst ridden' phases in life - Mothers in their 40s appear to have these attacks too - boy-oh-boy - they sure need a lot of maintenance.

Explanatory notes:

* - In the last couple of months - Zeenat has gone ahead and aggressively bought up tracts of land next to our house (needlessly large & a bit pricey in my opinion) and actually extended our parking lot into a sort of a wide open garden with all kinds of frills and walkways. She even wanted a fountain for lord's sake but MB put his foot down. Shes actually got all this done superquick - keeping a civil team on site round the clock and picking every last paverblock & granite slab herself - faster than i ever manage to get any civil work done at the factory.

Here is a sample of the results of her labor - the view from my Penthouse's window.

From garden

Will probably take it off in the morning. These are just notes, i guess.

Ok. Assume that we start with some capital - say - 1,00,000

1% of 1,00,000 = Rs.1,000

Post taxes, a fixed deposit pays you 0.5% per month (6% p.a) risk free = Rs.500 a month on 1,00,000

In order to maintain a minimum standard lifestyle i probably need Rs.50,000 (not right now. Now i need much lesser - but id ideally like 50,000 a month in change apart from what my day job will give me* - so this 50k will go to family for lifestyle, domestic expenses (dogfood, diapers) and so on)

So to make 50,000 a month from FD interest (risk free) i need about a crore in fixed deposits.

This is not just me - this is what anyone will need. This is / or atleast should be anyone's first financial milestone.

(*What the day job gives, will mostly go back to the day job because it is a physical business and it needs to grow, see ?)

I have pretty rigid ideas, developed over a long period , on this particular theme - more stuff maybe later.

Question: Why this wonkery today, all of a sudden ?


The thing is - say i have some money in stocks, part of a portfolio i set up in February 2009. By now - 'X' is slightly more than '2X' and this 2X today is like partly stocks and partly in cash (Most big positions sold off / older positions toned out etc) - Probably like 1X (stocks) + 1X (cash) -

The Index today is at 16,700 odd - here are some scenarios to consider and relative likelihoods of happening (my own estimates):

a) Index at 21,000 - 25% gain from current levels. Amount made = 25% of 1X = 0.25X
Likelihood: HIGHLY unlikely

b) Index at 15 - 18k - 5% +/- from current levels. Not significant change in nett worth.
Likelihood: Highly probable for another month or two.

c) Index falling back to 13,000 levels - 20% loss from current levels. Amount lost = 0.2X
Likelihood: Pretty good chances.

d) Index getting below 13,000 - >25% loss from current levels. Highly unlikely.

In such a scenario - the best case upward scenario looks a pretty small gain - while the most likely scenario (mildly bearish) will probably wipe out between 10 and 20% of my original capital.

One thing i am strongly tempted to do is the liquidate ALL my stock holding and just play with options and futures for the next month or so - purely participating on a momentum / technical call basis - with the option to cut exposure off with just one phone call.

*yawn* we'll see - the impulse to trade / act on half baked information is probably the serious investor's biggest folly - so we sleep on this tonight and take a call tomorrow - noting that in the background the assumption is that capital preservation and establishment of the trust fund are the medium term milestones we are going for.

Notes on the Ladder Theory

I have been obsessing about the Ladder Theory all afternoon. In case anyone hasn't read the article in question, please go forth immediately and do so.

Important takeaways:

a) I firmly agree with the idea that Girls have two ladders* - the 'Potential' ladder and the 'Never' ladder. (*Although the girl or two i discussed this article with seem to think that they only have one ladder.)

First impressions last pretty long, especially with girls. Girls form quick, rigid categorizations based on an initial assessment and from there it is quite hard to switch ladders.

b) Guys, i can quite confidently say, have only one ladder, "conflating both desirability as a mate and relationship value into an overall measure of priority" to quote the article.

This (i think) explains a lot of things.

A guy, at one time, can only work on one top ranking female or maybe a few more top rankers on his ladder and there is a general lack of civility, consistency and interest to work on most other females - resulting in erratic, sometimes 'troll-like' behavior - often sabotaging his chances with potential girls who happened to be lower ranked at that given time.

Girls - because of this general dual ladder concept - are much more level headed, stable in terms of sending out signals / general interaction with blokes from all kinds of ladders.

c) As ive always believed, the 'nice guy act' normally results in more harm than good. You go straight on the 'Never' ladder. The 'nice guy' can be quite tricky to explain - girls often send out mixed signals about what characters they find desirable - nearly all the time cryptic / not forthcoming about what they find 'potential' worthy and what they also like - but in the um, 'friend' sense.

d) And lastly, i think girls (atleast whilst they are officially not committed) maintain a fairly flexible, Open ended short list from the amongst the blokes on the 'Potential' ladder and retain one single communication quality with all members in the short list, atleast during the entire courtship / until time runs out (one way or the other)

On the contrary, guys tend to run Close ended ladders - with fewer candidates, often with no new entrants unless some of the older members on the ladder are removed for some reason or the other.

e) One, often overlooked aspect - which of course has a BIG say in the general scheme of things is that - females are, on an age to age basis - about 20% ahead of males on the 'relationship quotient related emotional maturity' score - probably even more so in the Indian context (what exactly is this and why? thats another long theory in itself. not today, im afraid. But im sure u get the general idea).

Now noting that for a male with females of the same or slightly older age on his ladder - this represents a significant disadvantage - while for a female looking for a suitor with any acceptable age configuration (usually nearly equal to or slightly older) this is hardly a matter for concern.

So there.

Disclaimer: I normally am quite sensible and all screws, nuts, bolts firmly in place. But this, i felt, for this stage of life, was an important concept to imbibe for all of us.

WTF, much bull is shot for FAR wackier things.

p.s Now i originally intended to do this as a tag* - with people asked to:

-> Read the Wikipedia article first and then post short opinions on:

1) One ladder vs two ladders for women.

2) Weightage given to first impression.

3) General agreement on a single ladder for men

4) The 'Nice guy' approach - Right or wrong

5) Opinion on open ended female ladders and close ended ones kept by males.

(*Thank the lords that i havent. Be warned that i might, if response is tepid :x)

On kim Clijsters and the pursuit of happiness

Ok.

Let us start with why i am a big fan of Kim Clijsters

(Was reminded of her after yesterday's, what appears to be ugly, end to her match against Serena. More here )

Clijsters is typically my kind of doe-eyed dream girl - mature, quiet, unassuming, easygoing - while still being top of the game professionally (or always being nearly so, on a consistent basis)

Shes probably always runs about 10% below peak performance by not being overachieving, psyched, maniacal and volatile (Like some of these less talented Russian Divas, Guys like Marat Safin, heck even Serena)

All ive seen about her on TV and online are always Sweet - She always appears smiley faced & content - i havent EVER seen her looking flustered / breaking the odd racquet or fighting referees or using arrogant, intimidating body language (Like Federer, for eg.)

The point here is the importance of being happy, emotionally stable and consistent through the course of one's working, social life.

Over these last few months of living, working alongside my parents i realize how important it really is to give off the right emotional signals to people around you, to be non-volatile as much as possible and being a stabilizing influence overall.

Even if this means that there is a compromise on performance intensity - In nearly all cases, by how much you are off from peak performance / skillset levels (10% or 15% or 50%) does not really matter.

It is typical with people of our generation, age group - we tend to risk driving off the cliff just to attempt to push up another 10-15% in performance - and end up, more often than not, driving off the cliff. While people, who in your opinion, are only 50-60% as good as you are end up doing more mileage than you ever managed.

The whole scenario is a bit like a bunch of people driving a car (controlled by multiple people, a bit like an airplane, if you get the idea) upto a hill station. Most of these people you are born with. Some get on board en-route.

In the long term the key performance benchmark is mileage - and potential disruptive factors include - incompatibility amongst the group, emotional stability of the group as a whole and yes, to an extent skill levels of key persons.

We are, afterall, Social beings. Knowing fundae, performance, professional skillsets are just a few of the variables involved. Involving oneself in general activities, socialization, travel, so on and so forth - part of a pursuit of general happiness which, in the larger scheme of things, is FAR more important.

P.s I wonder if such rambling can be interpreted as a sign of maturity ?

P.s 2 - Another thing one MUST read. The brilliant Ladder theory (i mentioned it on twitter) - Fundae like this, especially involving basic analyses of the differences in male vs female thought processes make especially good reading. Educational, if i might add. No ?

P.s 3 - In the Wikipedia page for Ladder theory mentioned above - there is this wonderful list of topics in a box titled 'Close Relationships' - neatly categorized into subcategories - then onto a series of wonderful topics and theories from each page thereon. Blogpost fodder - im even considering starting a tag based on this. Lets see.

Every now and then* there comes a time like now.

We feel that everything is going fine with progress along the road** we've chosen to follow.

The scenery, The excitement, Speed breakers, U-Turns, Traffic signals, Diversions, Roundabouts ...

We're a long way down the chosen road - having gone WAY past thinking about turning back or wasting time reflecting upon the road not taken..

We suddenly notice that the road we're on has taken on the appearance of a smooth, 12 lane freeway, no signs for turns, no exit ramps in sight

Just one big glowing sign ahead showing that the road leads to just one place and just about far enough that we'll probably be on the road for a while

And then we realize we what we ought to have realized atleast a little while earlier -

That we are living our dream***, we are on the highway that we've been aspiring to be on all along

Now that theres just us and the road, now is the time to shift into fifth gear, enjoy, have fun and get on with it.

For there is more of this road, then more roads, forks and obsessing in store.

Notes:

*Like thrice in a decade or so.

**A rather clumsy reference to the kind of Roads featured in Frost's 'The Road not taken'. Im sure one gets the idea

*** Medium term dream, to be specific. Um, i know it is a rather pathetic expression.

P.s The whole thing in regular, readable English:

This typically happens when you do the same thing, i mean on a macro basis (Like doing a course for eg. i felt the same way during the 3rd year in college) for more than 2+ years.

After 2+ years on the same thing - on some random sunday - when youre well fed, well rested and with no particularly nagging deadline to catch - you suddenly see it clearly - the need to go from Level 7 to Level 9 at your chosen field of work - to make the 2+ years youve spent to matter to something.

Time to buckle down and do up the homework. Definitely NOT the time to give in to hormones, random stimulus and screw up.

So there.

(P.P.S - I know this is not my style and all. But WTF. We can always go back to Megan Fox and Chinese stock markets tomorrow, no ?)

Was in Bangalore for a few days earlier this week. On work, of course, which went rather well i must say. Maybe stuff on it later.

Visited a much better stocked crossword store at the Garuda mall - a stone's throw from my Hotel. Acquired copies of:

a) this - not too inspiring (for now). Did a story or two. But the bloke was at his prime a few decades ago. Must have been Avante Garde, back then. I guess. We'll see, wont we ?

b) The highly recommended The View from Castle Rock by Alice Munro (Some of her stuff on the New Yorker, mind you, are tedious. But WTF, worth a shot ) - yet to open, of course.

c) John Le Carre's : The Constant Gardener. (yeah, the filmy* cover and all. But then, with someone as delectable as her featured, surely we can make an exception!). Light and engaging so far, i must admit.

My wonderful hotel also had a dusty old bookcase with quite a few treasures in it. The housekeeper / receptionist was kind enough to let me take with me a lovely 1982 edition of this and ' A day in Venice: New practical guide of the town' (completely revised, 22nd edition released in 1987. ) - about 125 pages of colourful imagery and madly wonkish descriptions of Venice's sites & sounds. Both books, of course, in mint condition and the receptionist, i dont know what he thought, just handed them to me and insisted that i take them with me, compliments of the hotel :x

(Koi padtha nahin hai sahib, aapko chahiye tho leke jao. Sab second hand mein liya, madam ne)

[ P.s Staying on the subject of the Constant Gardener - Please do NOT click on this if you are a fan, like i was, of Ralph Fiennes. And he was on his way to an AIDS conference for pete's sake!]